The expected cocoa output for the 2023–2024 season is expected to fall well short of expectations, with an estimated 40% deficit from the objective of 820,000 metric tons, according to two sources from COCOBOD, Ghana’s regulatory body for the cocoa business.
Unfavorable weather patterns, smuggling operations, illicit gold mining, and the incidence of swollen shoot disease are some of the factors causing this reduction.
The first source expressed concerns to Reuters on the production gap, stating that the situation has been made worse by strong seasonal winds and inadequate rainfall. The current output for the season is expected to be approximately 500,000 tons.
“Unfortunately, the cause of the decline could not be remedied immediately through human intervention,” the source said in response to the difficulties.
Due to smuggling and illicit gold mining, often known as galamsey in the local language, COCOBOD estimated a loss of around 150,000 tons of cocoa during the preceding 2022–2023 season. Furthermore, the regulator said earlier this month that about 500,000 hectares of cocoa farmlands had been destroyed by the cocoa swollen shoot virus.
The first source stated that there are continuous initiatives to restore farms, the start of the rainy season, and joint work with security authorities to stop smuggling as ways to lessen the production issues.
The second source is positive about Ghana’s prospects for a revival in output despite the current situation. COCOBOD, however, was unavailable to comment on the situation.
The reduction in cocoa yield from Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, along with growing deficits, has driven up cocoa prices globally to all-time highs.
Market participants are seeing increased demand and price volatility, as London cocoa futures have crossed the psychological £5,000 barrier and New York cocoa has crossed the $6,000 threshold.
Retail markets are starting to feel the effects of the spike in cocoa prices; producers of chocolate, like Hershey, are expecting consumer demand to decline as a result of rising pricing.
The president of Ghana’s cocoa buyers group, Samuel Adimado, called the current output prediction “shattering,” adding that member companies are changing how they operate to stay afloat in the face of these difficulties.
The first source drew attention to the worrying trend, highlighting how soaring worldwide cocoa prices have encouraged smuggling and could result in even greater losses this season.
