A few teams, like Senegal and Cape Verde, are sure to make it to the knockout stage of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, while others, like the Black Stars of Ghana, Egypt, and Cameroun, are barely hanging on.
Even after the final group stage competition round, those who finish third in their groups still have a chance to guarantee a spot in the final 16. But how exactly does it work?
Out of the 24 AFCON teams that are competing, only 16 make it to the knockout stage. Four additional spots will be awarded to the top three finishers in the group stage, and the top two teams from each group will automatically qualify.
Points, goals, and sometimes a tiny bit of luck are all that matter. Here’s the synopsis: The most crucial factor is points: following three group games, the team with the most points moves on to the round of 16. When two or more teams have the same number of points, things get a little trickier.
Head-to-Head Battle: If there are only two teams that are tied for points, the result of the teams’ head-to-head match counts. Bragging rights and a potential ticket to the next round are awarded to the matchwinner.
Goal Difference Determinates: But what if their matchup ended in a draw? After that, everything is determined by the total goal differential in each of their group matches.
The side that scores more goals than it concedes lets out a sigh of relief and advances toward qualification.
There’s another tiebreaker, so don’t worry! After that, teams are ranked according to how many goals they scored overall during the group stage. In this case, especially, the more goals, the better.
Lady Luck enters: An old-fashioned lottery is in order if the aforementioned criteria are unable to break the tie. Yes, the lucky team that claims the final spot will be chosen by the organizing committee through a drawing of lots.
Every goal, point, and a clean sheet is important for third-place teams. Their performance in each of the three group matches will determine their fate, but a little bit of luck can’t hurt either.
Three points were enough to get into the 2022 AFCON (see table below), and among the teams that made it were Tunisia and Comoros, who advanced at Ghana’s expense. With four points apiece, Malawi and Cape Verde joined them in the round of 16.
