The House passed the Respect for Marriage Act this week, codifying federal protections for same-sex marriage in the wake of concerns among lawmakers and LGBTQ advocates that the U.S. Supreme Court might reassess its landmark 2015 decision making gay marriage the law of the land.
Though there are reasons to fear that a group of conservative justices could overturn marriage equality, Sears said, there are also strong arguments that could lead the court to uphold it – including the court’s holding that “people do not rely on the right to have an abortion to shape their lives, because unwanted pregnancies are accidental.”
While it’s hard to predict what the court will ultimately do, it’s possible that state legislators and lower courts could target same-sex marriage in a piecemeal fashion as what happened with abortion rights in recent decades.
The legislation, sponsored by Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-New York, grants protections for same-sex and interracial marriages, repealing and replacing provisions that define marriage as between a man and woman, or that define a spouse as someone of the opposite sex. It also repeals and replaces provisions that don’t require states to recognize same-sex unions from other states and allows legal action for violations.
“It’s likely that over half the states would continue to extend marriage equality to same-sex couples even if the Supreme Court overturned Obergefell,” he said. “Many couples would still be able to marry in their home state or a nearby state.”
There are about 513,000 married same-sex couples in the United States.
Survey results published in March by the Public Religion Research Institute show that 68% of Americans favour legal marriage for gay and lesbian couples. The figure is 14 percentage points higher than in 2014 when 54% of Americans reported supporting such unions.
Republicans are divided on the question: 48% support it and 50% oppose it. Democrats are heavily in favour at 81%, and independents are just behind at 73%.
“Greater visibility of LGBT people and discussion of the issue, even when policy decisions went the other direction, led to more support,” Sears said.
